The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll shows the People’s National Party (PNP) has a slight numerical advantage over the JLP.
The Gleaner newspaper said that since June, it has commissioned pollster Bill Johnson to conduct five national polls and six constituency polls, with the findings showing a winner on December 29 to be home by a very close margin.
In June, the PNP led the JLP by a runaway 10 points at 35 per cent to 25 per cent popular support.
With the announced resignation of then prime minister, Bruce Golding, the JLP climbed to 31 per cent while the PNP moved to 37 per cent.
The JLP continued to regain strength and in November had 29 per cent support, while the PNP declined to 32 per cent.
It said that with Andrew Holness as the new JLP leader, the party’s fortunes climbed to 36 per cent while the PNP remained at 32 per cent.
But earlier this month, the Portia Simpson Miller led PNP regained the lead polling 38 per cent as against 36 per cent for the ruling party.
However, the newspaper says based on an analysis of the seat-by-seat possibilities undertaken by its own team, the ruling party is likely to win 43 of the 63 seats in the elections while the PNP will control 29.
“The JLP, which was elected to power with a four-seat majority in 2007, will have to pull out all the stops in at least 11 constituencies if it is to follow up on that win where Bruce Golding led it to victory in 32 seats while the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP captured 28 seats,” the Gleaner said.
“A lot has changed since that election. The number of constituencies has been increased to 63; Golding has left the political arena; and more than 300,000 Jamaicans have been added to the voters’ list,” it added.
There are 150 candidates contesting the elections. Electoral officials said that total of 1,648,036 persons are eligible to participate in the December 29 general election.