Possible weather system could impact islands weekend

However, with the celebrations of Emancipation Day and Culturama entering the heightened period this coming weekend, residents in St. Kitts and Nevis may find it prudent to keep abreast with the latest weather bulletins.

At present, forecasters are keeping a close watch on the system that remains far away from land and poses no immediate threat to the islands. However, experts have been sounding a note of caution that there are increasing odds of a tropical development in the Atlantic this week.

As the busiest period of the 2014 Hurricane Season approaches, forecasters have indicated that the system out in the Atlantic is a cluster of thunderstorms that they think have a high chance of developing into a depression or named storm, over the next five days. If it does become a storm it would be the second named one for the year and would be titled, Bertha. There is a 70% chance of development, which is up from the 40% on Sunday.

It is moving towards the west, bringing it towards the Lesser Antilles, in not too many days from now. The system however is not well put together at the moment and the hope is that it would fall apart before posing any challenge to the Caribbean nations.

They say Tthunderstorms have increased near the tropical disturbance as it moves westward across the eastern Atlantic. The area of unsettled weather is embedded within a line of converging air with winds coming together to not only produce showers but also a natural area of spin for a low pressure system to form. The spin to the air is limited right now which is some good news in the short term.

Reports from the Weather Channel say the complication comes in a few days when the disturbance hits a more favorable atmosphere. Some of the weather models like the American GFS show a robust tropical storm approaching the Lesser Antilles by the end of the week. But they also indicate that a European weather model is less enthusiastic, forecasting little if any development.

The caution however is that in this instance a much stronger case can be made for development than against it. The disturbance is a low-running worm burner, so it’ll likely stay south of the dry and dusty Saharan air that would otherwise work against development.

This also means it will remain within that region of converging air, which will continue to nourish thunderstorm growth and spin. By mid-week, upper winds are expected to relax noticeably, which will provide further support for organization. (Also worth noting that more recent runs of the European model using different starting conditions do show some development potential when compared to previous runs.)

The Weather Channel says the bottom line is: the odds are tilted in favor of tropical development in the upcoming days. It’s too early to say how strong a developing system might get but the Lesser Antilles, Leeward Islands, and even Puerto Rico could be impacted by this system by late week into the weekend.

While residents should not be unnecessarily alarmed, it is also cautioned that they should not allow the festive activities over the upcoming weekend, to prevent them from paying attention to all weather advisories.

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