At 5:00 am the center of tropical storm Rafael was located by NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude 19.4 north longitudes 63.8 west. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph…20 km/h…and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday.
On the forecast track…the center of Rafael will continue to move away from the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph…85 km/h with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Rafael could become a hurricane by Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles…280 km mainly to the northeast and east of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb…29.62 inches.
Rafael is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches…with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches…over the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands. The rain could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides…especially in areas of mountainous terrain. 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected.
Tropical storm conditions will gradually subside across Anguilla through late morning.
Dangerous surf conditions are possible in the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands through today.
A storm surge of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels is possible in areas of onshore flow in the warning area.